Global| Aug 04 2017U.S. Payroll Increase Moderates and Unemployment Rate Slips
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Nonfarm payrolls rose 209,000 (1.5% y/y) during July. A 181,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The rise followed gains of 231,000 in June and 145,000 in May. Together these figures were revised up [...]
Nonfarm payrolls rose 209,000 (1.5% y/y) during July. A 181,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The rise followed gains of 231,000 in June and 145,000 in May. Together these figures were revised up by 2,000. Hiring activity was mixed amongst sectors. Average hourly earnings rose an expected 0.3% (2.5% y/y) following 0.2% gains during the prior two months. The unemployment rate eased to 4.3%, as expected, and reversed June's uptick. The overall unemployment rate, including marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons, held steady at 8.6%.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 209 | 231 | 145 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| Previous | -- | 222 | 152 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 16 | 12 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Construction | 6 | 15 | 7 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Private Service-Producing | 183 | 162 | 140 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Government | 4 | 37 | -8 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 6.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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