Global| Jan 06 2017U.S. Payroll Increase Eases as Earnings Accelerate
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Nonfarm payroll employment increased 156,000 during December (1.4% y/y) following a 204,000 November increase and a 135,000 October rise. Revisions added 19,000 jobs to these two results combined. A 175,000 increase in December [...]
Nonfarm payroll employment increased 156,000 during December (1.4% y/y) following a 204,000 November increase and a 135,000 October rise. Revisions added 19,000 jobs to these two results combined. A 175,000 increase in December payrolls was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During all of 2016, payrolls improved an average of 180,000 per month, the weakest rise since 2012. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% following a 0.1% decline. A 0.3% gain had been expected. The y/y rise of 2.9% was the quickest since June 2009. The unemployment rate notched higher to an expected 4.7%. The overall unemployment rate including marginally attached and those working part-time for economic reasons fell to 9.2%, its lowest level since April 2008.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 156 | 204 | 135 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| Previous | -- | 178 | 142 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 17 | -7 | -4 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Construction | -3 | 17 | 14 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| Private Service-Producing | 132 | 185 | 138 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Government | 12 | 6 | -11 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.4 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 6.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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