Global| Jun 02 2017U.S. Payroll Increase Disappoints; Jobless Rate Declines
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The May employment report sent mixed signals about labor market conditions. Nonfarm payrolls rose 138,000 (1.5% y/y) last month. A 182,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The rise followed a 174,000 [...]
The May employment report sent mixed signals about labor market conditions. Nonfarm payrolls rose 138,000 (1.5% y/y) last month. A 182,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The rise followed a 174,000 April gain and a 50,000 March increase. Together these figures were revised down by 66,000. Weakness in hiring was broad-based last month. Average hourly earnings increased an expected 0.2% (2.5% y/y) after 0.2% gain, revised from 0.3%. The unemployment rate declined to 4.3%. Stability at 4.4% had been forecast. The overall unemployment rate, including marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons, fell to 8.4%, its lowest level since November 2007.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Valuing Workplace Benefits from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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