Global| Sep 06 2019U.S. Payroll Increase Disappoints; Earnings Strengthen While Jobless Rate Holds Steady
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Job growth continues to decelerate. Nonfarm payrolls increased 130,000 (1.4% y/y) during August following a 159,000 July rise, revised from 164,000. June's increase also was revised lower to 178,000 from 193,000. A 163,000 August [...]
Job growth continues to decelerate. Nonfarm payrolls increased 130,000 (1.4% y/y) during August following a 159,000 July rise, revised from 164,000. June's increase also was revised lower to 178,000 from 193,000. A 163,000 August increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. So far this year, payrolls have risen an average 158,000 per month after a 223,000 monthly average last year. Average hourly earnings in the private sector increased 0.4% following three consecutive months of 0.3% gain. A 0.3% increase had been expected. Growth during the last twelve months of 3.2% remained below the recent peak of 3.4% logged in February.
The unemployment rate held steady at an expected 3.7%. Employment in the household survey rose 590,000 (1.5% y/y) and the labor force increased 571,000 (1.3% y/y). The overall jobless rate, including those who were marginally attached or working part-time for economic reasons, rose to 7.2% from 7.0% in July, reversing that month's decline.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 130 | 159 | 178 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 164 | 193 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 3 | 4 | 10 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Construction | 14 | -2 | 19 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Private Service-Producing | 84 | 133 | 134 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Government | 34 | 28 | 17 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.4 | 34.3 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.4 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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