Global| Jan 05 2018U.S. Payroll Increase Disappoints; Earnings Gain Picks Up & Jobless Rate Holds Steady
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The labor market exhibited tepid performance last month. Nonfarm payrolls increased 148,000 (1.5% y/y) during December following a 252,000 November rise and a 211,000 October gain. Together these two figures were revised down by [...]
The labor market exhibited tepid performance last month. Nonfarm payrolls increased 148,000 (1.5% y/y) during December following a 252,000 November rise and a 211,000 October gain. Together these two figures were revised down by 9,000. A 190,000 increase in payrolls had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The unemployment rate held steady at an expected 4.1%. The overall unemployment rate, including the marginally-attached and those working part-time for economic reasons, ticked higher to 8.1% from 8.0%, down from 9.1% one year earlier. Average hourly earnings increased an expected 0.3% (2.5% y/y) after rising an unrevised 0.1% in November.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 148 | 252 | 211 | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 228 | 244 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 25 | 31 | 23 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
| Construction | 30 | 27 | 15 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 5.0 |
| Private Service-Producing | 91 | 176 | 184 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Government | 2 | 13 | -11 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.5 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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