Global| Jun 07 2019U.S. Payroll Growth Slows Significantly; Wage Gain Eases Y/Y
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The labor market weakened during May. Nonfarm payrolls increased 75,000 (1.5% y/y) following a 224,000 April rise, revised from 263,000. The March increase also was revised lower to 153,000 from 189,000. The May rise in payrolls fell [...]
The labor market weakened during May. Nonfarm payrolls increased 75,000 (1.5% y/y) following a 224,000 April rise, revised from 263,000. The March increase also was revised lower to 153,000 from 189,000. The May rise in payrolls fell short of expectations for a 189,000 gain in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Average hourly earnings in the private sector increased 0.2% for the third straight month and missed expectations for a 0.3% rise. The April improvement was unrevised. Growth during the last twelve months dropped to 3.1%.
The unemployment rate held steady at an expected 3.6% and equaled the lowest rate since December 1969. Employment in the household survey rose 113,000 and the labor force increased 176,000. The overall jobless rate, including those who were marginally attached or working part-time for economic reasons, fell to 7.1%, the lowest level since December 2000.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Has U.S. Monetary Policy Gone Off Track? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 75 | 224 | 153 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 263 | 189 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 3 | 5 | -3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Construction | 4 | 30 | 15 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Private Service-Producing | 82 | 170 | 140 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Government | -15 | 19 | 0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.4 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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