Global| May 03 2019U.S. Payroll Gains Are Unexpectedly Strong; Jobless Rate Falls to 1969 Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The labor market remained robust during April. Nonfarm payrolls increased 263,000 (1.8% y/y) following a 189,000 March gain, revised from 196,000. February's rise was revised higher to 56,000. The April increase exceeded expectations [...]
The labor market remained robust during April. Nonfarm payrolls increased 263,000 (1.8% y/y) following a 189,000 March gain, revised from 196,000. February's rise was revised higher to 56,000. The April increase exceeded expectations for a 185,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% (3.2% y/y) and missed expectations for a 0.3% rise. It followed a 0.2% March gain, revised from 0.1%.
The unemployment rate declined to 3.6% from 3.8% as the size of the labor force fell 490,000 m/m. It was the lowest rate since December 1969. The overall jobless rate, including those who were marginally attached or working part-time for economic reasons, was unchanged at 7.3%, the lowest level since March 2001.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Online Retailing, Self-Employment Disrupt Inflation from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas can be found here.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 263 | 189 | 56 | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 196 | 23 | -- | -- | -- | |
| Manufacturing | 4 | 0 | 8 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Construction | 33 | 20 | -23 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Private Service-Producing | 202 | 158 | 65 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Government | 27 | 10 | 10 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.4 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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