Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Oct 05 2012

U.S. Payroll Gain Remains Moderate; Jobless Rate At Lowest Level Since January 2009

Summary

Labor market improvement is continuing. Nonfarm payrolls grew 114,000 during September following revised gains of 142,000 and 181,000 during the prior two months, earlier reported as 96,000 and 141,000, respectively. A 120,000 [...]

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Labor market improvement is continuing. Nonfarm payrolls grew 114,000 during September following revised gains of 142,000 and 181,000 during the prior two months, earlier reported as 96,000 and 141,000, respectively. A 120,000 increase was expected. Moderate job gains continued in most industries although government payroll growth was stronger than indicated earlier. The unemployment rate fell to 7.8% versus expectations for an uptick to 8.2% as employment surged as measured in the household survey.

The figures referenced above are available in Haver's USECON database. Additional detail can be found in the LABOR and in the EMPL databases. The expectation figures are from Action Economics and are in the AS1REPNA database.

The minutes for the latest FOMC meeting are available here http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20121004a.htm

Employment: (M/M Chg., 000s) Sep Aug Jul Y/Y 2011 2010 2009
Payroll Employment 114 142 181 1.4% 1.2% -0.7% -4.4%
 Previous -- 96 141 -- -- -- --
 Manufacturing -16 -22 18 1.5 1.8 -2.7 -11.6
 Construction 5 1 3 -0.1 -0.3 -8.2 -16.0
 Private Service Producing 114 119 143 1.8 1.8 -0.1 -3.5
 Government 10 45 18 -0.2 -1.7 -0.3 0.2
Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector 34.5 34.4 34.4 34.
(Sep'11)
34.4 34.1 33.9
Average Private Sector Hourly Earnings (%) 0.3 -0.1 0.2 1.4 2.0 2.4 3.0
Unemployment Rate (%) 7.8 8.1 8.3 9.0
(Sep'11)
9.0 9.6 9.3
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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