Global| Aug 02 2019U.S. Payroll Gain Moderates; Earnings Increase & Jobless Rate Steadies
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Job growth eased during July. Nonfarm payrolls increased 164,000 (1.5% y/y) last month following a 193,000 June rise, revised from 224,000. May's increase also was revised lower to 62,000 from 72,000. So far this year, payrolls have [...]
Job growth eased during July. Nonfarm payrolls increased 164,000 (1.5% y/y) last month following a 193,000 June rise, revised from 224,000. May's increase also was revised lower to 62,000 from 72,000. So far this year, payrolls have risen an average 165,000 per month after a 223,000 monthly average last year. July's rise in payrolls roughly matched expectations for a 168,000 gain in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Average hourly earnings in the private sector increased 0.3% for the third straight month. A 0.2% increase had been expected. Growth during the last twelve months of 3.2% was below the recent peak of 3.4% logged in February.
The unemployment rate held steady at an expected 3.7%. Employment in the household survey rose 283,000 and the labor force increased 370,000. The overall jobless rate, including those who were marginally attached or working part-time for economic reasons, slipped to 7.0% last month from 7.2% in June. The figure was near the record low of 6.8% reached in October 2000.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 164 | 193 | 62 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 224 | 72 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 16 | 12 | 2 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Construction | 4 | 18 | 1 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Private Service-Producing | 133 | 150 | 76 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Government | 16 | 14 | -19 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.3 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.4 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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