Global| Jun 04 2021U.S. Payroll Gain Disappoints; Earnings Firm as Jobless Rate Declines
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Factory sector jobs improve but construction jobs fall. • Average hourly earnings are unexpectedly strong. • Unemployment rate moves sharply lower. As more individuals receive the COVID-19 vaccination and restrictions on businesses [...]
• Factory sector jobs improve but construction jobs fall.
• Average hourly earnings are unexpectedly strong.
• Unemployment rate moves sharply lower.
As more individuals receive the COVID-19 vaccination and restrictions on businesses relax, growth in jobs has picked up. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 559,000 (9.0% y/y) during May. A 675,000 rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. This gain was accompanied by an upward revision to the April increase to 278,000 from 266,000. The March increase also was revised higher to 785,000 from 770,000.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.5% last month (2.0% y/y) after an unrevised 0.7% strengthening in April. A 0.2% increase was expected.
The unemployment rate fell sharply to 5.8% in May from 6.1% in April, compared to expectations for a drop to 5.9%. The labor force declined 53,000 after rising 430,000. At the same time, employment in the household survey grew by 444,000 after rising 328,000. The overall unemployment rate, including those who were marginally attached or working part-time for economic reasons, fell to 10.2% from 10.4%. It remained the lowest level since March of last year.
The employment & earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 559 | 278 | 785 | 9.0% | -5.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 266 | 770 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 23 | -32 | 51 | 5.5 | -5.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Construction | -20 | -5 | 93 | 5.9 | -3.0 | 2.8 | 4.6 |
| Private Service-Producing | 489 | 255 | 565 | 11.4 | -6.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Government | 67 | 59 | 61 | 1.6 | -3.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.9 | 34.9 | 34.9 | 34.7 | 34.6 | 34.4 | 34.5 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.5 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 2.0 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 13.3 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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