Global| Jun 01 2018U.S. Payroll & Earnings Growth Improve; Jobless Rate Declines
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The job market exhibited buoyancy during May. Nonfarm payrolls increased 223,000 following a 159,000 April rise and a 155,000 March increase. Together, payrolls during these two months were revised up 15,000. A 185,000 rise in [...]
The job market exhibited buoyancy during May. Nonfarm payrolls increased 223,000 following a 159,000 April rise and a 155,000 March increase. Together, payrolls during these two months were revised up 15,000. A 185,000 rise in employment was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Signs of job market improvement extended to a 0.3% increase (2.7% y/y) in average hourly earnings which followed an unrevised 0.1% uptick. It was the largest gain since January. A 0.2% rise had been expected.
The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, the lowest level since April 2000. Expectations had been for 3.9%. The total unemployment rate, including marginally attached and working part time for economic reasons fell to 7.6%, equaling its 2001 low.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 223 | 159 | 155 | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 164 | 135 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 18 | 25 | 21 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
| Construction | 25 | 21 | -3 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 5.0 |
| Private Service-Producing | 171 | 109 | 127 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Government | 5 | -3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.5 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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