Global| May 15 2012U.S. Overall CPI Is Unchanged; Core Price Increase Is Stable
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer prices were unchanged last month versus an expected 0.1% uptick. The figure lessened the y/y increase to 2.3%, down from its peak of 3.9% last September. Prices less food and energy increased a steady 0.2%, also as expected. [...]
Consumer prices were unchanged last month versus an expected 0.1% uptick. The figure lessened the y/y increase to 2.3%, down from its peak of 3.9% last September. Prices less food and energy increased a steady 0.2%, also as expected. However, the rise left the y/y gain at 2.3% which equaled its highest in September 2008.
Energy prices fell 1.7% (+0.9% y/y) as gasoline prices declined 2.6% (+3.2% y/y). Fuel oil costs declined a not seasonally adjusted 1.1% (+0.9% y/y) while gas & electricity prices slipped another 0.2% (-2.4% y/y).
Food prices again rose 0.2% (3.1% y/y) as prices of meats ticked up 0.1% (4.6% y/y). Elsewhere, cereals & bakery products costs rose a firm 0.4% (4.7% y/y) while fruits & vegetable prices jumped 1.0% (-1.7% y/y.
For goods alone, prices less food & energy again rose 0.2% last month and the 12-month increase of 2.0% was up from a 0.3% decline late in 2010. Apparel prices rose 0.4% and the 5.1% y/y gain was up versus the 0.5% decline in 2010. Furniture & bedding costs were unchanged (1.8% y/y) while appliance costs fell 0.6% (+3.7% y/y). New motor vehicle prices increased 0.8% (2.2% y/y).
The 0.3% increase in core service prices (2.4% y/y) reflected another 0.2% rise (2.2% y/y) in shelter costs (32% of the CPI). Owners equivalent rent of primary residences also rose 0.2% (2.1% y/y). The y/y increase compares to a low of -0.3% in early 2010. Education costs rose a stable 0.3% (4.2% y/y) and medical care service prices rose a quickened 0.4% (3.7% y/y). Public transportation prices jumped 1.6% (1.1% y/y) while recreation services prices ticked up 0.1% (3.0% y/y).
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index (%) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 1.6 | -0.3 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Services less Energy | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Food | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Energy | -1.7 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 15.2 | 9.6 | -18.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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