Global| Feb 07 2020U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls & Wages Improve; Unemployment Edges Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The labor market strengthened as the new year began. Nonfarm payroll employment during January increased 225,000 (1.5% y/y) after rising 147,000 in December, revised from 145,000. November employment rose 261,000, revised from [...]
The labor market strengthened as the new year began. Nonfarm payroll employment during January increased 225,000 (1.5% y/y) after rising 147,000 in December, revised from 145,000. November employment rose 261,000, revised from 256,000. A 163,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Average hourly earnings in the private sector improved 0.2% following an unrevised 0.1% December uptick. A 0.3% rise had been expected. Growth during the last twelve months of 3.1% remained below the recent 12-month peak of 3.5% reached in February of last year.
The unemployment rate rose to 3.6% in January. Stability at 3.5% had been expected. Employment in the household survey fell 89,000 (+1.3% y/y) but the labor force increased 50,000 (0.9% y/y). The overall jobless rate, including those who were marginally attached or working part-time for economic reasons, increased to 6.9% from December's 6.7%. It was down from 8.0% last January.
With this release, the payroll employment figures were revised. As of March 2019, the level of employment was reduced by 514,000 persons (-0.3%), the largest such revision since the financial crisis of 2008.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 225 | 147 | 261 | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 145 | 256 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | -12 | -5 | 58 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Construction | 44 | 11 | -2 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.6 |
| Private Service-Producing | 174 | 147 | 202 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Government | 19 | 5 | 14 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.4 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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