Global| Mar 06 2020U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Show Unexpected Strength Ahead of Coronavirus Outbreak; Wages Improve & Unemployment Dips
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The job market firmed in February. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 273,000 (1.6% y/y), repeating January's increase which was revised from 225,000. The December increase also was upwardly revised to 184,000 from 147,000. A [...]
The job market firmed in February. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 273,000 (1.6% y/y), repeating January's increase which was revised from 225,000. The December increase also was upwardly revised to 184,000 from 147,000. A 170,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Average hourly earnings in the private sector rose an expected 0.3% following an unrevised 0.2% January improvement. Growth of 3.0% y/y remained below its 12-month peak of 3.5%.
The unemployment rate declined to 3.5% in February. Stability at 3.6% had been expected. Employment in the household survey rose 45,000, but the labor force declined 60,000. The overall jobless rate, including those who were marginally attached or working part-time for economic reasons, increased to 7.0%, its highest level in six months.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 273 | 273 | 184 | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 225 | 147 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 15 | -20 | -2 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Construction | 42 | 49 | 16 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.6 |
| Private Service-Producing | 167 | 195 | 159 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Government | 45 | 51 | 20 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.4 | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.4 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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