Global| Jan 10 2020U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Increase & Wage Gains Disappoint; Jobless Rate Steadies
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The labor market ended 2019 with diminished growth. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 145,000 (1.4% y/y) during December after rising 256,000 in November, revised from 266,000. October employment rose 152,000, revised from 156,000. [...]
The labor market ended 2019 with diminished growth. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 145,000 (1.4% y/y) during December after rising 256,000 in November, revised from 266,000. October employment rose 152,000, revised from 156,000. A 178,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. For all of last year, payrolls overall rose on average 175,700 per month after a 223,300 monthly average in 2018. It was the weakest December-to-December gain since 2011.
Average hourly earnings in the private sector edged 0.1% higher last month following a 0.3% November increase, revised from 0.2%. A 0.3% rise had been expected. Growth during the last twelve months of 2.9% remained below the recent 12-month peak of 3.4% logged in February.
The unemployment rate held steady at an expected 3.5% in December after falling from 3.6% in October. Employment in the household survey rose 267,000 (1.3% y/y) and the labor force increased 209,000 (0.9% y/y). The overall jobless rate, including those who were marginally attached or working part-time for economic reasons, declined to 6.7% from October's 7.0%, nearly equaling the lowest level since October 2000.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 145 | 256 | 152 | 1.4% | 1.6 | 1.7% | 1.6% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 266 | 156 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | -12 | 58 | -45 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Construction | 20 | 2 | 14 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.6 |
| Private Service-Producing | 140 | 191 | 193 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Government | 6 | 13 | -12 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.4 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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