Global| Aug 03 2018U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment Growth Weakens, Jobless Rate Declines and Wages Rise Moderately
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Earlier signs of strength in the labor market cooled during July. Nonfarm payrolls increased 157,000 (1.6% y/y) following a 248,000 June rise which was revised up from 213,000 estimated last month. The rise in May payrolls also was [...]
Earlier signs of strength in the labor market cooled during July. Nonfarm payrolls increased 157,000 (1.6% y/y) following a 248,000 June rise which was revised up from 213,000 estimated last month. The rise in May payrolls also was strengthened to 268,000 from 244,000 for revision of 59,000 in the two months. A 190,000 rise in employment was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% (2.7% y/y) which followed a downwardly revised 0.1% rise. A 0.3% gain had been anticipated.
The unemployment rate slipped to an expected 3.9% due to a surge in employment. The total unemployment rate, including those marginally attached and working part-time for economic reasons, fell to 7.5%, the lowest level since May 2001.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 157 | 248 | 268 | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 213 | 244 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 37 | 33 | 23 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
| Construction | 19 | 13 | 30 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 5.0 |
| Private Service-Producing | 118 | 182 | 204 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Government | -13 | 14 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.5 | 34.6 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.5 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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