Global| Oct 26 2015U.S. New Home Sales Weaken but Prices Rebound
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Recent housing market data are throwing off mixed signals. On the heels of Thursday's report that existing home sales in September neared a nine-year high, today's indication that new single-family home sales fell 11.5% last month to [...]
Recent housing market data are throwing off mixed signals. On the heels of Thursday's report that existing home sales in September neared a nine-year high, today's indication that new single-family home sales fell 11.5% last month to 468,000 (AR) left them down 2.7% y/y as the prior two months were revised lower. Sales were at the lowest level since November. Expectations had been for 547,000 sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The median price of a new single-family rose 2.7% (13.5% y/y) to $296,000. The reversal of an August decline left them at this year's highest level and one-third firmer than the 2010 average. The average price of a new single-family home jumped 6.2% (14.1% y/y) to $364,000, the highest level since December.
Home sales were notably weak last month in the Northeast as they fell by roughly two-thirds both m/m and y/y to 13,000. Sales in other regions of the country also declined but to lesser degrees. In the South, sales were off 8.7% to 274,000 and were unchanged y/y. Sales in the Midwest fell 8.3% to 55,000 (-20.0% y/y) and sales in the West declined 6.7% to 126,000 (+11.1% y/y).
The easing of home sales prompted a rise in the supply of homes on the market to 5.8 months at the current sales rate, the highest level since July of last year. Working the other way, however, the median number of months a home was on the market declined to 3.3, the least since February.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from the Action Economics survey is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| U.S. New Single-Family Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 468 | 529 | 503 | -2.7 | 440 | 430 | 368 |
| Northeast | 13 | 34 | 25 | -66.7 | 28 | 31 | 29 |
| Midwest | 55 | 60 | 62 | -20.0 | 58 | 61 | 47 |
| South | 274 | 300 | 287 | 0.0 | 244 | 233 | 195 |
| West | 126 | 135 | 129 | 11.1 | 110 | 106 | 97 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 296,900 | 289,100 | 296,400 | 13.5 | 283,775 | 265,092 | 242,108 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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