Global| Apr 23 2014U.S. New Home Sales Unexpectedly Decline Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New home sales during March fell 14.5% to 384,000 (-13.3% y/y), the lowest level since July. February sales were revised to 449,000, initially reported as 440,000. The latest figure disappointed expectations for 450,000 sales in the [...]
New home sales during March fell 14.5% to 384,000 (-13.3% y/y), the lowest level since July. February sales were revised to 449,000, initially reported as 440,000. The latest figure disappointed expectations for 450,000 sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These volume numbers are quoted at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
Sales declines were logged in most regions of the country. Sales in the Midwest fell 21.5% to 51,000 (-17.7% y/y), the lowest level since December 2012. Sales in the West were off 16.7% to 80,000 (-27.9% y/y), the lowest level since January 2012, while sales in the South declined 14.4% to 226,000 (-3.8% y/y), the least in six months. Working the other way, new home sales in the Northeast improved 12.5% to 27,000 (-22.9% y/y) and recovered just a piece of February's plunge.
Median prices for new homes jumped 11.2% to $290,000 (12.6% y/y) from $260,900. The average price of a new home increased 4.8% to $334,200 (11.3% y/y) versus 318,900 in February.
The inventory of unsold homes increased 3.2% (25.3%) to the highest level since November 2010. The months' sales supply of new homes gained to 6.0, the highest level since October 2011. The length of time to sell a new home held steady m/m at 3.5 months, down from 14.0 months at the end of 2009.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure is from the Action Economics survey and is available in the AS1REPNA database.
Credit Scoring and the Revolution in Debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond is available here.
| U.S. New Home Sales | Mar | Feb | Jan | Y/Y % | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total SAAR, 000s | 384 | 449 | 470 | -13.3 | 431 | 368 | 306 |
| Northeast | 27 | 24 | 36 | -22.9 | 30 | 29 | 21 |
| Midwest | 51 | 65 | 51 | -17.7 | 61 | 47 | 45 |
| South | 226 | 264 | 262 | -3.8 | 234 | 196 | 168 |
| West | 80 | 96 | 121 | -27.9 | 106 | 97 | 72 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 290,000 | 260,900 | 262,700 | 12.6 | 264,600 | 242,108 | 224,317 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
