Global| Mar 26 2013U.S. New Home Sales Slip But Prices Inch Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New home sales slipped 4.6% (+12.3% y/y) last month to 411,000 (AR). That compared to a downwardly revised gain to 431,000 sales during January. Consensus expectations had been for sales of 424,000. Sales declined m/m throughout most [...]
New home sales slipped 4.6% (+12.3% y/y) last month to 411,000 (AR). That compared to a downwardly revised gain to 431,000 sales during January. Consensus expectations had been for sales of 424,000. Sales declined m/m throughout most of the country. New home sales in the Northeast fell 13.3% to 26,000 (-10.3% y/y to 26,000). New home sales in the South fell 9.7% (-5.6% y/y) to 186,000, the lowest level since October. In the West, sales fell 2.1% to 141,000 but they remained up by more-than one half y/y. Sales in the Midwest added to earlier gains with a 13.7% rise (18.4% y/y) to 58,000, the highest level since November 2009.
Home prices firmed 3.0% (2.9% y/y) during February to a median of $246,800. That, however, made up just half of the prior month's decline, yet earlier months' data were revised higher. The average price of a new home sold rose to $313,700, up 14.4% y/y.
Despite these one month changes, conditions in the new home market remain tight. The inventory of unsold homes has backed up somewhat recently while the months supply of new homes rose slightly last month to 4.4. The lowest level of new home inventories was in the Northeast and West while it has backed up in the Midwest and South. (The series dates back to 1960.)
The length of time to sell a new home ticked up during February. Nevertheless, it took just 5.0 months to sell a home, down from the 7.1 month average for all of last year. These figures compare to more than 14 months at the beginning of 2010.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure is from the Action Economics survey and is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| U.S. New Home Sales | Feb | Jan | Dec | Y/Y % | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (SAAR, 000s) | 411 | 431 | 381 | 12.3 | 366 | 307 | 321 |
| Northeast | 26 | 30 | 29 | -10.3 | 28 | 21 | 31 |
| Midwest | 58 | 51 | 45 | 18.4 | 49 | 45 | 45 |
| South | 186 | 206 | 211 | -5.6 | 195 | 168 | 173 |
| West | 141 | 144 | 96 | 54.9 | 94 | 72 | 74 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 246,800 | 239,600 | 260,100 | 2.9 | 242,258 | 224,317 | 221,242 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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