Global| Aug 23 2013U.S. New Home Sales Retrace All of This Year's Gains
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Fewer new home sales accompanied lower home prices last month. New home sales in July dropped 13.4% to 394,000 from 455,000 in June, initially reported as 497,000. The latest was the lowest number of new home sales since October. The [...]
Fewer new home sales accompanied lower home prices last month. New home sales in July dropped 13.4% to 394,000 from 455,000 in June, initially reported as 497,000. The latest was the lowest number of new home sales since October. The figure disappointed the Consensus forecast for 492,000 sales in July. These volume figures are quoted at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
Sales were down across the country. The West paced the fall-off with a 16.1% drop (-7.8% y/y) to 94,000, the lowest figure since March of last year. The decline was followed by the South where home sales fell 13.4% (+16.4% y/y) to 213,000, the lowest level since October. The Midwest region followed with a 12.9% decline to 54,000 and were unchanged y/y. Finally, sales in the Northeast dropped 5.7% (+10.0% y/y) to 33,000.
The median price of a new home slipped 0.5% to $257,200. Prices have fallen 7.9% during the last three months. Nevertheless, they remain 8.3% ahead of July 2012. Average new home prices rose to $322,700 during July, up 6.8% from June and up 14.3% from a year ago.
The inventory of unsold homes rose by nearly one-quarter y/y and the months' sales supply of new homes rose to 5.2, its highest since January of last year. The length of time to sell a new home retreated in July to 3.5 months compared to 14.0 months at the end of 2009.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure is from the Action Economics survey and is available in the AS1REPNA database.
The Parts Are More Than the Whole: Separating Goods and Services to Predict Core Inflation from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
| U.S. New Home Sales | July | June | May | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total SAAR, 000s | 394 | 455 | 439 | 6.8 | 368 | 306 | 321 |
| Northeast | 33 | 35 | 29 | 10.0 | 29 | 21 | 31 |
| Midwest | 54 | 62 | 75 | 0.0 | 47 | 45 | 45 |
| South | 213 | 246 | 233 | 16.4 | 196 | 168 | 173 |
| West | 94 | 112 | 102 | -7.8 | 97 | 72 | 74 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 257,200 | 258,500 | 262,600 | 8.3 | 242,108 | 224,317 | 221,242 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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