Global| Oct 24 2019U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Weaken
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Sales of new single-family homes fell 0.7% (+15.5% y/y) during September to 701,000 (SAAR) from 706,000 in August, revised from 713,000. Sales of 700,000 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These sales are [...]
Sales of new single-family homes fell 0.7% (+15.5% y/y) during September to 701,000 (SAAR) from 706,000 in August, revised from 713,000. Sales of 700,000 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These sales are recorded when contracts are signed or deposits are made.
The median price of a new home declined 7.9% (-8.8% y/y) to $299,400 last month. It was the lowest price since February 2017. Prices were 12.8% below the record high of $343,400 in November 2017. The average price of a new home weakened 8.1% (-6.1% y/y) to $362,700.
Sales were mixed m/m across the country last month. The only region to record an increase was the Midwest where sales rose 6.3% (-17.3% y/y) to 67,000 after a 10.0% decline in August. Working the other way, new home sales in the West declined 3.8% (+11.5% y/y) to 175,000 following a 14.5% rise. Moving lower by 2.8% (+29.6% y/y) were home sales in the Northeast to 35,000 following a 5.9% increase in August. In the South, sales eased 0.2% (+24.0% y/y) to 424,000 after a 5.7% gain.
The months' supply of homes on the market held steady at 5.5 and remained well below the December 2018 high of 7.4 months. The median number of months a new home was on the market after its completion rose slightly to 3.4 but remained above the recent low of 2.7 last October.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| U.S. New Single-Family Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Sep | Aug | July | Sep Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 701 | 706 | 665 | 15.5 | 615 | 617 | 562 |
| Northeast | 35 | 36 | 34 | 29.6 | 32 | 40 | 32 |
| Midwest | 67 | 63 | 70 | -17.3 | 75 | 72 | 69 |
| South | 424 | 425 | 402 | 24.0 | 348 | 341 | 318 |
| West | 175 | 182 | 159 | 11.5 | 160 | 164 | 142 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 299,400 | 325,200 | 307,600 | -8.8 | 323,125 | 321,633 | 306,500 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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