Global| Jan 26 2012U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Fall
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The market for new homes remains under pressure. Total new home sales fell 2.2% last month to 307,000 (AR) and reversed the little-revised 2.3% November gain. Sales fell short of Consensus expectations for 320,000. Indeed, last year [...]
The market for new homes remains under pressure. Total new home sales fell 2.2% last month to 307,000 (AR) and reversed the little-revised 2.3% November gain. Sales fell short of Consensus expectations for 320,000. Indeed, last year was a rough one for new home sales. The full-year decline of 5.7% was the fourth fall in as many years and lowered sales by three-quarters versus the 2005 peak. The median price of a new single family home fell 2.5% m/m to $210,300 (-12.8% y/y). The latest was the lowest since October, 2010. The average home price rose 6.3% m/m to $266,000 (-8.8% y/y).
Sales performance continued to vary across the country. Sales in the West rose 9.0% but were down 29.1% y/y. In the Northeast sales rose by nearly one-half versus November but were unchanged y/y. Sales in the South fell 10.1% and were down 4.8% y/y while sales in the Midwest were off 3.7% but up by one-third y/y.
The inventory of unsold homes reached another series low (-17.4% y/y) and at 6.1 months of sales was near the cycle-low. Low inventories of unsold homes are fairly common across the country. The length of time to sell a new home fell to median 6.7 months versus 11.4 months in 2010.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| U.S. New Home Sales | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y % | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (SAAR, 000s) | 307 | 314 | 307 | -7.3 | 303 | 321 | 374 |
| Northeast | 22 | 15 | 18 | 0.0 | 21 | 31 | 31 |
| Midwest | 52 | 54 | 51 | 36.8 | 45 | 45 | 54 |
| South | 160 | 178 | 155 | -4.8 | 167 | 173 | 202 |
| West | 73 | 67 | 83 | -29.1 | 70 | 74 | 87 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 210,300 | 215,700 | 221,100 | -12.8 | 223,433 | 221,242 | 214,500 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
