Global| Feb 26 2009U.S. New Home Sales Lowest Since 1963
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Sales of new single-family homes during January fell again, to their lowest level in the series' history which dates back to 1963. They dropped 10.2% from December to 309,000 after a 9.5% December decline that was slightly shallower [...]
Sales of new single-family homes during January fell again, to their lowest level in the series' history which dates back to 1963. They dropped 10.2% from December to 309,000 after a 9.5% December decline that was slightly shallower than reported last month. New home sales were off by half and down by three-quarters from their peak during July 2005. January sales even fell short of Consensus expectations for 325,000.
Sales declines around the country have been nothing but extreme beginning with a 59.9% twelve-month decline in the West. That is followed by the 50.9% shortfall in the Northeast. Somewhat lesser declines occurred in the South where sales fell 45.9% January-to-January and by 33.8% in the Midwest.
The median price for a new single-family home continued to fall severely. At $201,000, the figure was off 9.9% just from December's level which was upwardly revised. The 13.5% year-to-year decline represented the weakest twelve months since 1970 as homebuilders attempted to move inventory. In fact, that effort continued successful and the inventory of unsold homes is down by more than one-quarter during the last year to its lowest level since 2003. In each of the country's regions, the inventory is down by one-quarter to one-third during the last year.
The month's supply of new homes for sale, however, surged to a record 13.3 due to the abysmal sales rate.
The new home sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
The Affordability of Homeownership to Middle-Income Americans from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is available here.
| US New Homes | January | December | Y/Y (%) | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales (SAAR, 000s) | 309 | 344 | -48.2 | 479 | 768 | 1,049 |
| Northeast | 27 | 24 | -50.9 | 35 | 64 | 64 |
| Midwest | 51 | 54 | -33.8 | 69 | 118 | 161 |
| South | 172 | 184 | -45.9 | 264 | 408 | 559 |
| West | 59 | 82 | -59.9 | 111 | 178 | 266 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 201,100 | 223,200 | -13.5 | 230,117 | 243,742 | 243,067 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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