Global| Dec 23 2011U.S. New Home Sales Increase But Average Price Lowest Since 2003
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total new home sales rose 1.6% last month to 315,000 (AR). The rise followed an unrevised 1.3% October gain but September's increase was raised sharply to 5.5%. Sales roughly matched Consensus expectations for 312,000. Sales continue [...]
Total new home sales rose 1.6% last month to 315,000 (AR). The rise followed an unrevised 1.3% October gain but September's increase was raised sharply to 5.5%. Sales roughly matched Consensus expectations for 312,000. Sales continue to move sideways since the removal of the home-buyers tax credit. Price weakness again may have prompted last months' sales increase. The median price of a new single family home fell 3.8% m/m to $214,100 (-2.5% y/y). Earlier months' figures were revised higher but the latest is a thirteen month low. The average home price dropped 4.1% m/m to $242,900 (-13.8% y/y), the lowest since 2003.
As recently has been the case, sales performance varied by region of the country. Sales in the Midwest rose 7.5% (62.9% y/y) while sales in the South rose 12.9%, up 6.7% y/y. Sales in the Northeast fell by one-quarter (-30.0% y/y) while in the West sales declined 16.9% (+1.5% y/y).
The inventory of unsold homes reached a new series low (-19.4% y/y) and it reached a new cycle-low of 6.0 months of sales. Low inventories of unsold homes are fairly common across the country. The length of time to sell a new home remained a median 7.4 months versus 11.4 months during all of last year.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| U.S. New Home Sales | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y % | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (SAAR, 000s) | 315 | 310 | 306 | 9.8 | 321 | 374 | 482 |
| Northeast | 14 | 19 | 20 | -30.0 | 31 | 31 | 35 |
| Midwest | 57 | 53 | 46 | 62.9 | 45 | 54 | 69 |
| South | 175 | 155 | 175 | 6.7 | 173 | 202 | 265 |
| West | 69 | 83 | 65 | 1.5 | 74 | 87 | 113 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 214,100 | 222,600 | 215,100 | -2.5 | 221,242 | 214,500 | 230,408 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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