Global| Oct 26 2011U.S. New Home Sales Improve But Prices Remain Depressed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total new home sales improved 5.7% last month to 313,000 (AR) after a 0.3% August slip that was less than reported initially. The latest increase was the first in the last five months and it beat Consensus expectations for 300,000 [...]
Total new home sales improved 5.7% last month to 313,000 (AR) after a 0.3% August slip that was less than reported initially. The latest increase was the first in the last five months and it beat Consensus expectations for 300,000 sales. Price weakness may have prompted the sales increase. The median price of a new single family home fell another 3.1% m/m to $204,400 (-10.4% y/y). The latest was the lowest since December, 2003. The average price dropped by roughly the same amount m/m to $243,900 (-9.9% y/y).
As has been the case recently, sales performance varied by region of the country. Sales in the South jumped 11.2% (9.8% y/y) while sales in the West rose 9.7% and were unchanged y/y. Conversely, in the Northeast sales saw a 4.2% m/m decline and sales fell by more than one-third y/y. Sales in the Midwest also fell by 12.2% but were down a lesser 14% y/y.
The inventory of unsold homes fell to a new low for the series (-19.3% y/y) and it reached a new cycle-low of 6.2 months of sales. Low inventories of unsold homes are fairly common across the country.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database
| U.S. New Home Sales | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y % | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (SAAR, 000s) | 313 | 296 | 297 | -0.9 | 321 | 374 | 482 |
| Northeast | 23 | 24 | 24 | -34.3 | 31 | 31 | 35 |
| Midwest | 43 | 49 | 46 | -14.0 | 45 | 54 | 69 |
| South | 179 | 161 | 165 | 9.8 | 173 | 202 | 265 |
| West | 68 | 62 | 62 | 0.0 | 74 | 87 | 113 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 204,400 | 210,900 | 230,900 | -10.4 | 221,242 | 214,500 | 230,408 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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