Global| Nov 24 2010U.S. New Home Sales Fall But Home Prices Collapse
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Weakness in the housing market was reinforced with this month's readings. Yesterday, the figures on sales of existing single-family homes slipped. Today's reading indicated that sales of new homes collapsed. The 8.1% decline to [...]
Weakness in the housing market was reinforced with this month's readings.
Yesterday, the figures on sales of existing single-family homes slipped. Today's
reading indicated that sales of new homes collapsed. The 8.1% decline to 282,000
nearly reversed all of September's gain from the series' low. Sales in the
Western region of the country were the weakest. They fell 23.9% from September
and were down nearly one-half from last year. Sales in the Midwest also fell
20.4% (-27.8% y/y) while sales in the Northeast were up merely 12.1% (-12.1%
y/y). Only sales in the South showed any strength with a 3.1% increase but they
still were off roughly one-quarter from last year.
Emphasizing the message of weakness was the 13.9% m/m collapse in the median price of a new home to $194,900. The latest was the lowest since late-2003 (no typo). The lesser 8.0% decline in the average sales price of a new home indicates that sale prices of expensive homes held up (or they just stayed on the market). Nevertheless, the price of $248,200 also was the lowest since late-2003.
At the current sales rate, the months' supply of unsold homes rose back to 8.6; however, the latest remained well below the early-2009 high of 12.1 months. The inventory of unsold homes was down 16.5% from 12 months ago. It was off roughly two-thirds from the 2006 peak and stood at its lowest since 1968. The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database.
| US New Homes | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y % | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales (SAAR, 000s) | 283 | 308 | 275 | -28.5 | 372 | 481 | 769 |
| Northeast | 29 | 33 | 28 | -12.1 | 32 | 35 | 64 |
| Midwest | 39 | 49 | 32 | -27.8 | 54 | 69 | 118 |
| South | 164 | 159 | 150 | -23.0 | 201 | 264 | 409 |
| West | 51 | 67 | 65 | -46.9 | 87 | 113 | 178 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 194,900 | 226,300 | 223,200 | -9.4 | 214,500 | 230,408 | 243,742 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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