Global| Jul 25 2008U.S. New-Home Sales Dipped in June, Decline Stabilizing?
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Sales new single-family homes in June dipped 0.6% to 530,000. The fall added to a 1.7% drop during May that was a much shallower decline than initially reported. The level of sales in June was down 61.8% from the July 2005 peak. [...]
Sales new single-family homes in June dipped 0.6% to 530,000. The fall added to a 1.7% drop during May that was a much shallower decline than initially reported. The level of sales in June was down 61.8% from the July 2005 peak. Nevertheless, the latest level of sales beat expectations for 503,000.
By region sales in the South fell 2.0% and they are down 12.5% since December. In the West sales dipped 0.9% and that resulted in a 15.6% drop so far this year. Though sales in the Northeast recovered the May decline with a 5.3% gain, they remained down 28.6% since December. In the Midwest June sales rose 2.5%. So far this year this has been the star performing region as sales posted a 12.2% increase.
The median price for a new single-family home increased 1.4% to $230,900 after a 6.5% decline during May which was a deeper drop than reported initially.
The number of new homes for sale fell 5.3% (-21.5% y/y) and reduced the inventory of unsold homes to the lowest level since December of 2004. The decline in the number of unsold homes has been greatest in the West (-23.9% y/y) but declines of similar magnitude have been logged elsewhere in the country.
The month's supply of new homes for sale again ticked lower m/m to 10.0 but that remained near the cycle's high.
| US New Homes | June | May | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales (SAAR, 000s) | 530 | 533 | -33.2% | 768 | 1,049 | 1,279 |
| Northeast | 40 | 38 | -37.5 | 64 | 64 | 81 |
| Midwest | 83 | 81 | -27.2 | 118 | 161 | 203 |
| South | 293 | 299 | -33.4 | 408 | 559 | 638 |
| West | 114 | 115 | -34.9 | 178 | 266 | 356 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 230,900 | 227,700 | -2.0 | 243,742 | 243,067 | 234,208 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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