Global| Dec 24 2013U.S. New Home Sales Dip But Prices Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New home sales during November slipped 2.1% to 464,000 (+16.6% y/y) although sales during the prior two months were revised sharply higher. The latest figure beat expectations for 450,000 sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]
New home sales during November slipped 2.1% to 464,000 (+16.6% y/y) although sales during the prior two months were revised sharply higher. The latest figure beat expectations for 450,000 sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These volume numbers are quoted at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
The median price of a new home increased 4.5% to $270,900 (10.6% y/y), the highest level since April. The average price of a new home improved another 4.1% during November to $340,300, up 17.1% year-to-year.
A nearly one-third m/m increase in sales in the West (19.2% y/y) to 118,000 was accompanied by the Northeast where sales rose 15.2% (15.2% y/y) to 38,000. In the Midwest sales fell by roughly one-quarter (+6.8% y/y) to 47,000. That was followed by the South where sales fell 9.1% (17.6% y/y) to 261,000.
The improvement in sales reduced the inventory of unsold homes during the last two months and the y/y increase moderated to 12.1%. The months' sales supply of new homes dropped sharply to 4.3, not far above the cycle low of 3.9 months reached in January. The length of time to sell a new home ticked slightly higher m/m to 3.1 months, compared to 14.0 months at the end of 2009.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure is from the Action Economics survey and is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| U.S. New Home Sales | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total SAAR, 000s | 464 | 474 | 403 | 16.6 % | 368 | 306 | 321 |
| Northeast | 38 | 33 | 26 | 15.2 | 29 | 21 | 31 |
| Midwest | 47 | 64 | 57 | 6.8 | 47 | 45 | 45 |
| South | 261 | 287 | 229 | 17.6 | 196 | 168 | 173 |
| West | 118 | 90 | 91 | 19.2 | 97 | 72 | 74 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 270,900 | 259,200 | 266,100 | 10.6 | 242,108 | 224,317 | 221,242 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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