Global| Oct 28 2009U.S. New Home Sales Decline Though Prices Increase
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The recovery in the housing market stuttered last month. Sales of new single-family homes fell during September following five consecutive months of increase. The seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of 402,000 followed a downwardly [...]
The recovery in the housing market stuttered last month. Sales of new single-family homes fell during September following five consecutive months of increase. The seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of 402,000 followed a downwardly revised August level of 417,000 and it fell well short of Consensus expectations for a rise to 440,000 sales. Nevertheless, sales have risen by nearly one-quarter from the January low.
Home prices firmed last month, but the recovery this year has been tepid. The median price of a new single-family home rose to $204,800 from an upwardly revised August level. Nevertheless the latest figure, which was down 9.1% y/y, remained near the lowest level since October of 2003. The average price of a new home was less weak and off 1.6% y/y.
Price discounts, higher sales and much lower housing starts have combined to lower the overhang of unsold homes. A September decline dropped them by more than one-third versus last year to the lowest level since 1982 (no typo). In the West the number of homes for sale fell by nearly one-half to a record low while inventories elsewhere in the country fell by roughly one-third.
The months' supply of unsold homes held steady last month at 7.5 months and was down from the high of 12.4 months in January. The figure was the lowest since January 2007.
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| US New Homes | September | August | July | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales (SAAR, 000s) | 402 | 417 | 413 | -7.8% | 481 | 769 | 1,049 |
| Northeast | 42 | 42 | 41 | 68.0 | 35 | 64 | 64 |
| Midwest | 71 | 53 | 56 | 12.7 | 69 | 118 | 161 |
| South | 188 | 209 | 215 | -11.1 | 264 | 408 | 559 |
| West | 101 | 113 | 101 | -1.0 | 113 | 178 | 266 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 204,800 | 199,900 | 215,600 | -9.1 | 230,408 | 243,742 | 243,067 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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