Global| Dec 23 2020U.S. New Home Sales Decline Sharply in November; Prices Weaken
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Fall in new home sales is regionally broad-based. • Prices fall modestly. New single-family home sales declined 11.0% during November (+20.8% y/y) to 841,000 (SAAR) from 945,000 in October, revised from 999,000. September sales also [...]
• Fall in new home sales is regionally broad-based.
• Prices fall modestly.
New single-family home sales declined 11.0% during November (+20.8% y/y) to 841,000 (SAAR) from 945,000 in October, revised from 999,000. September sales also were revised down to 965,000 from 1,002 million. Sales of 990,000 were expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Sales weakened across the country, led by a 43.3% decline (-24.4% y/y) to 59,000 in the Midwest from 104,000 in October. Sales were at the lowest level since April 2016. In the West, sales fell 17.3% (+19.8% y/y) to 230,000, the first decline since April. In the South, new home sales eased 1.9% (+30.5% y/y) to 513,000, off for the third straight month. In the Northeast, sales eased 2.5% (+18.2% y/y) to 39,000, reversing October's improvement.
The median price of a new home edged 0.7% lower to $335,300 in November (+2.2% y/y). The average price of a new home rose 1.8% (1.5% y/y) to $390,100. These prices are not seasonally adjusted.
The 4.1 months' supply of new homes on the market in November compared to a recent low of 3.5 months in both August and September. Despite this increase, the supply compared to 6.7 months in May 2019. The median number of months a new home stayed on the market after completion fell to 3.6 in November from an upwardly revised 4.1 months in October. These figures were down from a high of 4.5 months in both August and September.
New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| U.S. New Single-Family Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 841 | 945 | 965 | 20.8 | 685 | 614 | 616 |
| Northeast | 39 | 40 | 39 | 18.2 | 30 | 32 | 40 |
| Midwest | 59 | 104 | 95 | -24.4 | 72 | 75 | 72 |
| South | 513 | 523 | 562 | 30.5 | 400 | 347 | 341 |
| West | 230 | 278 | 269 | 19.8 | 183 | 160 | 164 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 335,300 | 337,500 | 340,500 | 2.2 | 319,267 | 323,125 | 321,633 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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