Global| Jan 25 2013U.S. New Home Sales and Prices Improve during 2012
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
For all of last year, new home sales rose 19.2% from 2011 to 366,000 units. However, during December sales of new homes fell to 369,000 (AR) from 398,000 during November, revised from 377,000. Consensus expectations had been for sales [...]
For all of last year, new home sales rose 19.2% from 2011 to 366,000 units. However, during December sales of new homes fell to 369,000 (AR) from 398,000 during November, revised from 377,000. Consensus expectations had been for sales of 383,000 for last month. Sales were down m/m throughout most of the country. In the Northeast, sales fell to 24,000 (+20.0% y/y) and reversed the November gain. For the year, however, sales rose by nearly one-third versus 2011 to 28,000. In the South sales fell to 208,000 last month (+15.6% y/y) but for the year sales rose to 195,000. New home sales in the West were off 11.1% (-1.2% y/y) and during all of 2012 new home sales rose by nearly one-third to 94,000. Offsetting these m/m declines was a 21.3% m/m rise (-21.7% y/y) in sales in the Midwest to 57,000. For all of 2012 sales rose 7.6% to 49,000.
House prices continued to improve. The 1.3% December rise to $248,000 pulled them up 13.9% y/y and 7.5% for all of last year to $241,033.
The inventory of unsold homes nudged up in December but y/y it fell 0.7% to a record low. (The series dates back to 1960.) The decline in home inventories stretches across the country although there was a modest bump up last year in the West.
The length of time to sell a new home also tumbled. During December, it took 4.6 months to sell a home, down from the 7.1 month average for all of last year. These figures compare to more than 14 months at the beginning of 2010.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure is from the Action Economics survey and is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| U.S. New Home Sales | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y % | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (SAAR, 000s) | 369 | 398 | 364 | 8.8 | 366 | 307 | 321 |
| Northeast | 24 | 34 | 23 | 20.0 | 28 | 21 | 31 |
| Midwest | 57 | 47 | 54 | -1.7 | 49 | 45 | 45 |
| South | 208 | 227 | 185 | 15.6 | 195 | 168 | 173 |
| West | 80 | 90 | 102 | -1.2 | 94 | 72 | 74 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 248,900 | 245,600 | 243,100 | 13.9 | 241,033 | 224,317 | 221,242 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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