Global| Oct 24 2018U.S. New Home Sales and Prices Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The market for new homes weakened sharply this year. New single-family home sales fell 5.5% (-13.2% y/y) during September to 553,000 (SAAR). It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline, pushing sales 13.1% below the high reached in [...]
The market for new homes weakened sharply this year. New single-family home sales fell 5.5% (-13.2% y/y) during September to 553,000 (SAAR). It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline, pushing sales 13.1% below the high reached in November 2017. The latest decline followed a 3.0% August fall to 585,000, revised from 629,000, and a 1.5% July drop to 603,000, revised from 608,000. Expectations had been for 625,000 September sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales are calculated when contracts are closed and are tabulated by the National Association of Realtors.
The median price of a new home improved 0.3% (-3.5% y/y) to $320,000 from $319,200 in August. The average price of a new home declined to $377,200 (-0.6% y/y).
Last month's decline in new home sales was led by a 40.6% shortfall (-51.3% y/y) in the Northeast to 19,000, the lowest level since April 2015. Sales in the West declined 12.0% (-15.8% y/y) to 139,000, the lowest level in two years. In the South, home sales fell 1.5% (-11.4% y/y), the fifth decline in the last six months. Working 6.9% higher (4.1% y/y) were sales in the Midwest to 77,000, the highest level in four months.
The months' supply of homes on the market increased to 7.1 from 6.5 months during August. These figures were up sharply from the low of 4.5 months in July 2016. The median number of months a new home was on the market held steady at 2.9, near the recovery low.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| U.S. New Single-Family Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 553 | 585 | 603 | -13.2 | 616 | 560 | 502 |
| Northeast | 19 | 32 | 24 | -51.3 | 40 | 32 | 25 |
| Midwest | 77 | 72 | 68 | 4.1 | 72 | 69 | 61 |
| South | 318 | 323 | 343 | -11.4 | 341 | 317 | 286 |
| West | 139 | 158 | 168 | -15.8 | 164 | 142 | 130 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 320,000 | 319,200 | 329,700 | -3.5 | 321,633 | 306,500 | 293,733 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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