Global| Jul 02 2013U.S. New and Unfilled Factory Orders Rise Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Orders to all manufacturers increased an expected 2.1% (3.6% y/y) during May, following a 1.3% April advance. The rise was led by a 3.7% jump (7.7% y/y) in durable goods bookings, little-revised from the advance report. It reflected a [...]
Orders to all manufacturers increased an expected 2.1% (3.6% y/y) during May, following a 1.3% April advance. The rise was led by a 3.7% jump (7.7% y/y) in durable goods bookings, little-revised from the advance report. It reflected a one-third m/m jump in orders for commercial aircraft & parts. Nondurable goods orders, which equal shipments, rose 0.7% (0.2% y/y) following two months of sharp decline. Shipments from petroleum refineries rose 1.3% (-1.0% y/y) as prices improved. Shipments of basic chemicals increased 1.0% (-0.2% y/y). The value of apparel shipments slipped 0.3% (+4.9% y/y) and shipments of paper products also edged down 0.3% (-2.1% y/y).
The greater strength in new orders versus shipments generated a rise in unfilled orders. Backlogs rose 0.8% during May and have risen 3.1% during the last twelve months. The rise has been led by a 5.7% y/y increase in transportation equipment, mostly for commercial aircraft. Excluding the transportation sector altogether, unfilled orders fell 0.8% y/y. Unfilled machinery orders fell 11.7% y/y and electrical equipment backlogs were down 1.2% y/y. Backlogs of computers & electronic products went the other way and rose 3.6% y/y.
Inventories in the factory sector were unchanged in May (2.2% y/y) following little change during the prior two months. Apparel inventories rose 0.3% (12.9% y/y) but chemical inventories were off 0.6% (+3.9% y/y). In the durable goods sector, inventories ticked up 0.1% (3.0% y/y). Transportation sector inventories were little changed m/m (9.7% y/y) reflecting a 16.1% y/y jump in aircraft & parts. Electrical equipment & appliance inventories rose 1.9% y/y and machinery stockpiles gained 0.7% y/y.
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in AS1REPNA.
| Factory Sector- NAICS Classification | May | Apr | Mar | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 2.1 | 1.3 | -4.7 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 12.9 | 16.3 |
| Shipments | 1.0 | -0.7 | -1.5 | 1.3 | 4.0 | 12.1 | 11.0 |
| Inventories | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 10.2 | 9.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.8 | 0.3 | -0.6 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 10.0 | 5.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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