Global| Jan 24 2012U.S. Natural Gas Price Plumbs A New Low; Petroleum Prices Roughly Stable
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Natural gas prices are continuing their recent slide. Warm temperatures, firm production and abundant inventories have lowered prices to their lowest since February, 2002. Last week's price of $2.40 per mmbtu was down nearly one-half [...]
Natural gas prices are continuing their recent slide. Warm temperatures, firm production and abundant inventories have lowered prices to their lowest since February, 2002. Last week's price of $2.40 per mmbtu was down nearly one-half y/y and fell further yesterday to a new low of $2.32. Prices were down versus the early-January, 2010 peak of $6.50.
The pump price for regular gasoline was stable last week at $3.39 per gallon. Since their May peak, prices have fallen 57 cents. Retail prices usually decline this time of year with reduced seasonal demand. To account for this pattern, Haver Analytics calculates seasonal factors. As a result, the adjusted gasoline price rose three cents w/w to $3.65. Yesterday, the wholesale price for a gallon of unleaded was $2.80 versus last week's average of $2.82.
The price for a barrel of light sweet crude slipped last week at $100.04 but remained up sharply from $79.71 averaged during the first week of October. Yesterday, the price fell to $98.18. Prices peaked at $113.93 in late-April. Brent crude also was down last week to $109.89 per barrel and was $109.48 yesterday. Prices peaked earlier at $126.21.
Gasoline demand recently fell 6.1% on average versus last year. Demand for residual fuel oil, used for heating, rose 9.5% y/y and distillate demand fell 4.4%. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products fell 2.7% year-to-year compared to 10.0% growth in the middle of 2009.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the gasoline demand figures are in OILWKLY
| Weekly Price | 01/23/12 | 01/16/12 | 01/09/12 | Y/Y% | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 3.39 | 3.39 | 3.38 | 9.0 | 3.52 | 2.78 | 2.35 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 100.04 | 100.44 | 102.39 | 11.4 | 95.14 | 79.51 | 61.39 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) | 2.40 | 2.80 | 2.92 | -47.7 | 3.99 | 4.40 | 3.95 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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