Global| Jun 16 2008U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index Down A Bit Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) indicated that its Composite Housing Market Index in June fell slightly to 18 from 19 in May. So far this year, the series has shown some signs of stability, averaging 18, 20 and 18 [...]
The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) indicated that its Composite Housing Market Index in June fell slightly to 18 from 19 in May. So far this year, the series has shown some signs of stability, averaging 18, 20 and 18 during the last three quarters. Nevertheless, the levels are more than two-thirds lower than the highs of 2004.
During the last twenty years there has been a 76% correlation between the y/y change in the Composite Index and the change in single family housing starts.
The index for single family detached homes in June was stable month-to-month but the 2Q average level still was near the series' 20-year low. Builders saw modest improvement in single family home sales during the next six months, up from the lows of the prior two quarters.
Despite modest improvement in the builders' index in most of the country's regions, continued decline was registered in the Northeast.
Traffic of prospective home buyers remained quite low.
The NAHB index is a diffusion index based on a survey of builders. Readings above 50 signal that more builders view conditions good than poor.
Visit the National Association of Home Builders.
| Nat'l Association of Home Builders | June | May | June '07 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Housing Market Index | 18 | 19 | 28 | 27 | 42 | 67 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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