Global| Apr 10 2019U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Decline As Interest Rates Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index fell 5.6% (+24.1% y/y) during the week ending April 5. Applications to purchase a home improved 0.5% (12.6% y/y), but refinancings declined 11.4% [...]
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index fell 5.6% (+24.1% y/y) during the week ending April 5. Applications to purchase a home improved 0.5% (12.6% y/y), but refinancings declined 11.4% (+42.5% y/y).
The effective interest rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.94%, but remained below the high of 4.71% reached early in November. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan increased to 4.54%. The rate on a Jumbo 30-year loan rose slightly to 4.36%, while adjustable 5-year mortgage rates eased to 3.88%.
The average mortgage loan size fell to $352,100 (+21.7% y/y). For purchases, the average loan size rose to a record $336,800 (8.8% y/y). The average refinance loan size backed away from the prior week's record to $371,600 (+44.6% y/y). Data for all these series go back to 1990.
Applications for fixed-rate loans jumped by roughly one-quarter y/y, while applications for adjustable-rate loans surged by more than one-half y/y.
The survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) | 4/5/2019 | 3/29/2019 | 3/22/2019 | Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | -5.6 | 18.6 | 8.9 | 24.1 | -10.4 | -17.8 | 15.6 |
| Purchase | 0.5 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 12.6 | 2.1 | 5.6 | 13.3 |
| Refinancing | -11.4 | 38.5 | 12.4 | 42.5 | -24.3 | -34.0 | 17.3 |
| 15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) | 3.94 | 3.88 | 3.99 | 4.25 (Apr '18) | 4.35 | 3.59 | 3.22 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
