Global| Aug 08 2018U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Continue to Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index fell 3.0% last week (-18.2% y/y) following a 2.6% drop during the prior week. It was the fourth consecutive weekly decline and left the level of [...]
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index fell 3.0% last week (-18.2% y/y) following a 2.6% drop during the prior week. It was the fourth consecutive weekly decline and left the level of applications at its lowest since January 2016.
The effective interest rate on a 15-year mortgage was fairly steady w/w at 4.38% but remained up sharply from last September's low of 3.40%. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan held steady at 4.97%, but was up versus its 4.15% September low. The rate on a Jumbo 30-year loan also was unchanged at 4.86%. For adjustable 5-year mortgages, the effective interest rate eased to 4.23%.
Purchase loan applications fell 2.0% (-1.8% y/y), about the same as during the prior week. It was also the fourth straight decline and left applications at the lowest level since February. Applications to refinance fell 4.5% (-35.3% y/y) as they continued the decline in place since the middle of last year.
The average mortgage loan size increased to $289,200 (3.5% y/y). For purchases, the average loan size eased to $308,000 (-2.1% y/y); for refinancings, it rose to $256,800 (1.1% y/y).
Applications for fixed-rate loans fell 17.8% y/y while applications for adjustable-rate loans declined 24.4% y/y.
The survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) | 08/03/18 | 07/27/18 | 07/20/18 | Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | -3.0 | -2.6 | -0.2 | -18.2 | -17.8 | 15.6 | 17.9 |
| Purchase | -2.0 | -3.1 | -1.0 | -1.8 | 5.6 | 13.3 | 15.5 |
| Refinancing | -4.5 | -1.7 | 0.9 | -35.3 | -34.0 | 17.3 | 19.7 |
| 15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) | 4.38 | 4.42 | 4.34 | 3.49 (Aug'17) | 3.59 | 3.22 | 3.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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