Global| Oct 23 2019U.S. Mortgage Applications Fall Sharply as Interest Rates Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its Mortgage Loan Index declined 11.9% (+53.6% y/y) during the week ending October 18, following a 0.5% improvement in the previous week. Applications to refinance a loan plunged 17.1% [...]
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its Mortgage Loan Index declined 11.9% (+53.6% y/y) during the week ending October 18, following a 0.5% improvement in the previous week. Applications to refinance a loan plunged 17.1% w/w (+125.8% y/y) after strong gains in each of the prior three weeks. Purchase applications fell 3.6% (+5.8% y/y), down for the fourth week of the last five.
The effective interest rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage increased to 3.48% from 3.40%, its highest level in three weeks. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose to 4.13% from 4.02%, but remains well below the November 2018 high of 5.33%. The effective rate on a 30-year Jumbo mortgage rose to 4.04%, but was roughly 100 basis points below October of last year. The rate on an adjustable 5-year mortgage eased to 3.42%, down from 4.52% last October.
The average mortgage loan size declined sharply to $312,700 (+6.9% y/y) from $329,900. The average loan size for purchases eased to $329,700 (+6.8% y/y). For refinancings, the average loan size declined sharply to $300,700 (+12.3% y/y), its least since December of last year.
Applications for fixed-rate loans rose 56.4% y/y. Adjustable rate loan applications increased a greatly lessened 4.1% y/y.
The survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for each index is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) | 10/18/19 | 10/11/19 | 10/04/19 | Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | -11.9 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 53.6 | -10.4 | -17.8 | 15.6 |
| Purchase | -3.6 | -4.1 | -0.9 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 5.6 | 13.3 |
| Refinancing | -17.1 | 3.6 | 9.8 | 125.8 | -24.3 | -34.0 | 17.3 |
| 15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) | 3.48 | 3.40 | 3.42 | 4.63 (Oct.'18) | 4.35 | 3.59 | 3.22 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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