Global| Mar 30 2011U.S. Mortgage Applications Fall As Interest Rates Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that overall mortgage applications fell 7.5% last week to the lowest level in a month. For March overall, applications rose 12.6% from the February average. Applications to refinance fell [...]
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that overall mortgage applications fell 7.5% last week to the lowest level in a month. For March overall, applications rose 12.6% from the February average. Applications to refinance fell 10.1% w/w and were off roughly one-half from the peak last August. Applications to purchase a home fell 1.7% but for the month were at their highest since December, up 5.8% from the low. During the last ten years, there has been a 42% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales. The correlation has lessened recently from 61% before 2008.
Applications for fixed interest rate mortgage financing fell 7.2% last week (-19.9% y/y). Applications for variable-rate financing fell 10.8 (-11.8% y/y) and they were off roughly two-thirds from the September peak.
The effective fixed interest rate on conventional 15-year mortgages rose to 4.41% last week. For 30-year mortgages the rate ticked up to 5.09%. Interest rates on fixed 15-year and 30-year mortgages are closely correlated (near-90%) with the rate on 10-year Treasury securities.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey covers roughly 50% of all U.S. residential mortgage applications processed each week by mortgage banks, commercial banks and thrifts. The figures for weekly mortgage applications are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
| BA Mortgage Applications (SA, 3/16/90=100) | 3/25/11 | 3/18/11 | 3/11/11 | Y/Y % | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 485.3 | 524.4 | 510.7 | -19.5 | 659.3 | 736.4 | 642.9 |
| Purchase | 188.5 | 191.7 | 186.6 | -22.4 | 199.8 | 263.5 | 345.4 |
| Refinancing | 2,222.5 | 2,471.2 | 2,406.3 | -17.9 | 3,348.1 | 3,509.2 | 2,394.1 |
| 15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) | 4.41 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.57 (3/10) |
4.39 | 4.85 | 5.88 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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