Global| Oct 20 2011U.S. Leading Indicators Post Another Weak Gain
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board reported that its Leading Economic Indicators index rose 0.2% during September following an unrevised 0.3% August increase. The gain matched the Consensus forecast. The 1-month diffusion index improved to a still- [...]
The Conference Board reported that its Leading Economic Indicators
index rose 0.2% during September following an unrevised 0.3% August
increase. The gain matched the Consensus forecast. The 1-month diffusion
index improved to a still-low 55%. However, the 6-month diffusion index
fell to its lowest level (40%) since January, 2009. A steeper interest
rate yield curve had the largest positive effect on the leaders while
lower building permits had the largest negative effect. Changes in the
other components were negligible.
The index of coincident indicators ticked up just 0.1% following a downwardly revised 0.1% August dip. The 1-month diffusion index rose to 100%, where the six-month series held. However, the six-month growth rate of 1.6% was near its low.
In a sign that economic excesses built further, the September lagging indicator index rose 0.2%. The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators, which tends to "lead" the "leaders," held at its depressed level.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The forecast figure is the Consensus in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
| Business Cycle Indicators(%) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 0.3 | -3.1 |
| Coincident | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | -5.4 | -1.3 |
| Lagging | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.9 | -2.9 | -1.9 | 3.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
