Global| Mar 22 2012U.S. Leading Indicators Post Another Firm Gain
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The economic outlook is getting brighter. The Conference Board reported that its Leading Economic Indicator index gained 0.7% during February following a revised 0.2% January rise, last month reported as 0.4%. A 0.6% increase had been [...]
The economic outlook is getting brighter. The Conference Board reported that its Leading Economic Indicator index gained 0.7% during February following a revised 0.2% January rise, last month reported as 0.4%. A 0.6% increase had been expected. Last month 80% of the component series rose. That's versus just 25% at the low last September. Lower initial claims for jobless insurance, a steeper interest rate yield curve, higher building permits and higher stock prices had the largest effects raising the overall leading index. The separate Leading Credit Index declined for a second month and indicated tighter conditions versus the easy state of last Summer & Fall.
The index of coincident indicators rose 0.2% for the second month. The y/y growth rate of 3.0% was its best since last March. Higher manufacturing & trade sales, increased payroll employment and improved personal income made positive contributions to the index change last month. Industrial production was unchanged.
The index of lagging indicators, designed to measure economic slack, rose 0.2% following a 0.5% January rise.
Another leading economic series is the ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators. It measures how the economy is performing versus its excesses. It was unchanged last month but has been slipping since early last year.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The forecast figure is the Consensus in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
| Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 7.6 | -12.8 |
| Coincident | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | -7.7 |
| Lagging | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | -2.9 | -1.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
