Global| Aug 17 2012U.S. Leading Indicators Improve
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Leading Economic Indicator index from the Conference Board rose 0.4% last month following a revised 0.4% June decline. A 0.2% gain was expected. Three quarters of the component series had a positive influence on the index last [...]
The Leading Economic Indicator index from the Conference Board rose 0.4% last month following a revised 0.4% June decline. A 0.2% gain was expected. Three quarters of the component series had a positive influence on the index last month including fewer initial claims for unemployment insurance, higher building permits, higher stock prices and a steeper interest rate yield curve. These gains were offset by lower consumer expectations for business/economic conditions and a lower ISM orders diffusion index.
The index of coincident indicators increased 0.3% following a 0.2% June gain. The rise was led by higher manufacturing and trade sales while improved payroll employment, higher real disposable income and higher industrial output provided lesser positive influences. The index of lagging indicators rose 0.4%, its strongest gain since April. A shorter average duration of unemployment and higher C&I loans outstanding provided for the increase.
Another leading economic series is the ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators. It measures how the economy is performing versus its excesses. The figure rose minimally last month and remained sharply below its high during January last year.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The forecast figure for the Consensus are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
Recent Weakness Sets Pace for Uncertain Second Half from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas can be found here.
| Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Jul | Jun | May | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.4 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 5.2 | 7.6 | -12.8 |
| Coincident | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 | -7.7 |
| Lagging | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | -2.9 | -1.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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