Global| Nov 20 2008U.S. Leading Indicators Fell Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board indicated that the October composite index of leading economic indicators fell by 0.8% after rising a downwardly revised 0.1% during September. The peak for the index was in July of last year and the six-month [...]
The Conference Board indicated that the October composite index of leading economic indicators fell by 0.8% after rising a downwardly revised 0.1% during September. The peak for the index was in July of last year and the six-month percent change fell to -4.7%, the largest rate of decline in nearly one year.
Six of the ten components of the leading index fell last month notably consumer expectations, vendor performance, stock prices and building permits.
The breadth of one-month increase amongst the leaders' 10 components fell back to 35% and over a six-month period the breadth of gain amongst the components picked slightly to 30%.
The leading index is based on actual reports for eight economic data series. The Conference Board initially estimates two series, orders for consumer goods and orders for capital goods.
The coincident indicators rose 0.2% following five consecutive months of decline. Three quarters of the index components rose m/m but over six months none rose. Over the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the y/y changes in the coincident indicators and real GDP.
The lagging index ticked up 0.1%, the smallest increase in four months. The ratio of coincident to lagging indicators (a measure of economic excess) also ticked up slightly but remained near its lowest level since 1982.Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
| Business Cycle Indicators (%) | October | September | August | July, 6 Month % (AR) | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | -0.8 | 0.1 | -0.9 | -4.7 | -0.4% | 1.3% | 2.7% |
| Coincident | 0.2 | -0.7 | -0.4 | -2.4 | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% |
| Lagging | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
