Global| May 21 2015U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators from the Conference Board increased 0.7% during April (5.6% y/y) following a 0.4% March rise, revised from 0.2%. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The [...]
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators from the Conference Board increased 0.7% during April (5.6% y/y) following a 0.4% March rise, revised from 0.2%. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The increase improved three-month growth to 4.4% (AR), its best in three months. Eighty percent of the component series improved m/m. More building permits, a steeper interest rate yield curve, improved consumer expectations for business/economic conditions, nondefense capital goods orders and the leading credit index led last month's overall index higher.
The index of coincident indicators improved 0.2% (2.6% y/y) following a downwardly revised 0.1% decline. Three-month growth held steady at 1.2%, its weakest since March 2013. Nonfarm payroll employment, personal income less transfers and manufacturing & trade sales made positive contributions to the index while industrial production fell.
The lagging indicators index ticked 0.1% higher (3.3% y/y). During the last three months, growth of 3.6% was down from the recent high, suggesting a lessening buildup of economic excess. Business inventories and a higher consumer credit to income ratios accounted for last month's increase.
The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators is a measure of how the economy is performing versus its excesses. It ticked higher last month versus the expansion low.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The forecast figures for the Consensus are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
| Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.7 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 2.1 |
| Coincident | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| Lagging | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
