Global| Jun 17 2011U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Rise is Strong
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board reported that its Leading Economic Indicators index rose 0.8% last month following a 0.4% April decline, initially reported as -0.3%. Consensus expectations were for a 0.2% rise in May. Despite the latest [...]
The Conference Board reported that its Leading Economic Indicators index
rose 0.8% last month following a 0.4% April decline, initially reported as
-0.3%. Consensus expectations were for a 0.2% rise in May. Despite the
latest increases, three-month growth in the series fell to 4.3% (AR) which
was down from 7.8% in 2010.
The breadth of increase among the components, measured by the 1-month diffusion index, increased sharply to 85%. A wider interest rate yield spread, higher building permits, higher consumer expectations and a higher money supply made the largest contributions to the May increase. Quicker vendor delivery speeds made the only negative contribution.
The index of coincident indicators again ticked 0.1% higher in May after an unrevised 0.1% April increase. The three-month annualized rate of change was 1.6%, down from its January high of 4.0%. All of the four component series (employment, income, production and sales) contributed to the May increase.
The lagging indicator index rose 0.3% in May, the fifth increase in the last six months. The gain was led by higher C&I loans offset by a longer average duration of unemployment. The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators, which tends to "lead" the "leaders" fell for the third month in the last four to 94.3%.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there and most are also in USECON. The expectations figure is the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
| Business Cycle Indicators(%) | May | Apr | Mar | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.8 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 0.3 | -3.1 |
| Coincident | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 1.1 | -5.4 | -1.3 |
| Lagging | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.0 | -2.9 | -1.9 | 3.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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