U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rebound in November, Exceeding Expectations
Summary
- Headline orders +5.3% (+12.3% y/y) in Nov., third m/m rise in four months.
- Nondefense aircraft orders surge 97.6% m/m vs. a 17.8% Oct. drop.
- Transportation orders rebound 14.7% m/m; orders ex transportation rise 0.5%.
- Core capital goods shipments +0.4%, sixth m/m gain in seven months, adding to Q4’25 momentum.
- Durable goods shipments -0.2%; unfilled orders +1.3%; inventories +0.2%.
New orders for durable goods gained a more-than-expected 5.3% m/m in November after a 2.1% decline in October (-2.2% initially), according to today’s advance report by the U.S. Census Bureau. November marked the third m/m rise in four months following m/m declines in July and June. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 2.8% m/m November increase. The year-on-year rate accelerated to 12.3% in November, the fastest pace since May, up from 4.8% in October and -3.4% in November 2024. Durable goods orders excluding the transportation sector rose 0.5% (4.4% y/y) in November, the seventh straight m/m rise, after a 0.1% uptick in October. Durable goods orders excluding defense rebounded 6.6% (12.6% y/y), the third m/m increase in four months, following a 1.3% October drop.
The m/m gain in November durable goods orders was led by a 97.6% m/m surge in orders for nondefense aircraft & parts following decreases of 17.8% in October and 6.8% in September. Orders for defense aircraft & parts dropped 1.2% (+19.9% y/y) in November following a 32.8% plunge in October and four consecutive m/m gains. Orders excluding aircraft fell 0.4% (+4.3% y/y), the first m/m fall since June, after no change in October.
Durable goods orders for transportation jumped 14.7% (29.0% y/y) in November, the third m/m gain in four months and the biggest since May, following a 6.3% drop in October. Orders for motor vehicles & parts fell 0.5% (+4.5% y/y) after a 0.1% October dip and five consecutive m/m rises. Across other sectors, orders for electrical equipment, appliances & components recovered 1.7% (6.3% y/y) following a 0.5% October drop, and orders for computers & electronic products rose 0.2% (5.3% y/y) after a 0.2% October increase; both recorded their seventh m/m rise in eight months. Orders for fabricated metal products climbed 1.0% (5.3% y/y), the fifth successive m/m gain, after a 0.8% October increase. Machinery orders rose 0.5% (7.7% y/y), the seventh straight m/m rise, on top of a 0.6% October gain. Orders for all other durable goods increased 0.3% (0.2% y/y), up for the second time in three months, after holding steady in October. Meanwhile, orders for primary metals were unchanged (4.2% y/y) following a 1.1% October decline.
Capital goods orders advanced 14.5% (27.7% y/y) in November, the third m/m gain in four months and the largest since May, reversing a 5.6% drop in October. Nondefense capital goods orders jumped 20.0% (31.6% y/y), the first m/m increase since August, following a 4.0% October decline. Core capital goods orders (i.e., nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft) rose 0.7% (5.5% y/y), the fifth straight m/m rise, after a 0.3% October increase. Defense capital goods orders fell 14.3% (+4.9% y/y) following a 13.2% October fall and two successive m/m increases. Notably, core capital goods shipments (core capex shipments)—a reliable coincident indicator of business spending on equipment in the national accounts—rose 0.4% (5.1% y/y) in November after a 0.8% increase in October, registering the third consecutive m/m rise and the sixth in seven months.
Shipments of all manufactured goods dipped 0.1% (+2.2% y/y) in November following a 0.1% uptick in October and two successive m/m declines. Durable goods shipments slid 0.2% (+5.7% y/y), the first m/m slide since August, after a 0.5% October increase. Nondurable goods shipments were virtually unchanged (-1.3% y/y) following a 0.3% October decline.
Unfilled orders of durable goods advanced 1.3% (9.3% y/y) in November, the fourth straight m/m gain, after a 0.2% increase in October. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders rose 0.3% (1.3% y/y), also up for the fourth consecutive month, following a 0.3% October rise.
Manufacturing inventories edged up 0.1% (1.1% y/y) in November after holding steady in October. Durable goods inventories rose 0.2% (1.5% y/y) following a 0.2% October rise and two successive 0.1% declines. Nondurable goods inventories ticked up 0.1% (0.4% y/y) after a 0.2% October decrease.
Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the AS1REPNA database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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