Global| Apr 21 2011U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Rise Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board reported that its Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.4% in March after an upwardly revised February gain of 1.0%, originally reported at 0.8%. Consensus expectations were for a 0.3% increase during last [...]
The Conference Board reported that its Index of Leading Economic
Indicators rose 0.4% in March after an upwardly revised February
gain of 1.0%, originally reported at 0.8%. Consensus expectations
were for a 0.3% increase during last month. The latest was the ninth
consecutive monthly increase. The three-month growth in the series
of 6.6% (AR) was down from its early-2010 high of 10.8%.
The breadth of increase among the components, measured by the 1-month diffusion index, fell to 60%, down from its 80% peak last month. A steeper yield curve, higher building permits and higher vendor performance (slower delivery speeds) were the main contributors to last month's index rise. These gains were offset mostly by a drop in consumer expectations.
The index of coincident indicators moved 0.2% higher in March after a downwardly revised 0.1% February increase. The three-month annualized rate of change was 3.2%, down from its recent high of 4.0%. Each of the four component series contributed to the March increase.
The lagging index rose 0.4% in March, the third increase in the last four months. Strength has been led by higher C&I loans. The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators, which tends to "lead" the "leaders" slipped m/m 95.0%.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there and most are also in USECON. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
| Business Cycle Indicators(%) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 0.3 | -3.1 |
| Coincident | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | -5.4 | -1.3 |
| Lagging | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 1.1 | -2.9 | -1.9 | 3.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
