Global| Sep 23 2010U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board reported that its Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.3% during August after an unrevised 0.1% July uptick. Despite these gains, the three-month rate of increase decelerated to just 0.7% (AR), its weakest [...]
The Conference Board reported that its Index of
Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.3% during August after an unrevised
0.1% July uptick. Despite these gains, the three-month rate of increase
decelerated to just 0.7% (AR), its weakest since March of last year when
it was declining. The leading index is based on actual reports for eight
economic data series. The Conference Board initially estimates two series,
consumer and capital goods orders.
The breadth of increase amongst the component leading series improved m/m to 70%, its highest since March. A widened yield spread between 10-year Treasuries & Fed funds as well as a higher real money supply provided the largest positive influences on the August leading index. Other components exerted just minor influences.
The index of coincident indicators was unchanged for the second month in the last three. However, the three-month change of 0.4% was its weakest since October of last year. Three of the four component series ticked up last month including real personal income, business sales and industrial production. Payroll employment fell for the third month with the decline in the number of Census workers.
The lagging index rose for the third consecutive month as the duration of unemployment and labor costs rose. The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators (another leading indicator) fell for the third consecutive month.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world. The latest U.S. Leading Indicators release can be found here.
| Business Cycle Indicators (%) | August | July | June | 3Mo %Chg. (AR) |
2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 2.6 | 0.5 | -2.7 | -0.2 |
| Coincident | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | -5.1 | -1.2 | 1.4 |
| Lagging | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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