Global| Jun 17 2010U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Resume Upturn
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board reported that their May Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.4% following an upwardly revised no-change during April. The three-month rate of increase held steady at 7.2% (AR), still its weakest in roughly [...]
The Conference Board reported that their May Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.4% following an upwardly revised no-change during April. The three-month rate of increase held steady at 7.2% (AR), still its weakest in roughly one year. The leading index is based on actual reports for eight economic data series. The Conference Board initially estimates two series, consumer and capital goods orders.
The breadth of increase amongst the component leading series improved slightly m/m to 50%, still near its lowest since March of last year. A steeper interest rate yield curve, stronger money supply growth and longer hours worked contributed the most positive influences on the May index offset by lower stock prices, lower building permits and lower capital goods orders.
The index of coincident indicators rose 0.4% after an upwardly revised April gain, both the strongest monthly increases since November. The three-month change of 4.5% was its strongest since early-2006. All four of the component series including industrial production, real personal income, business sales and payroll employment contributed positively to last month's increase.
The lagging index slipped 0.1% and has been little-changed since November. The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators (another leading indicator) rose slightly to the highest level since July, 2008.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world. The latest U.S. Leading Indicators release can be found here.
| Business Cycle Indicators (%) | May | April | March | Feb. 6-Month % (AR) | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 7.9 | 0.5 | -2.7 | -0.2 |
| Coincident | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.8 | -5.1 | -1.2 | 1.4 |
| Lagging | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.9 | -1.6 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
