Global| Feb 17 2017U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Post Another Strong Increase
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.6% during January (2.5% y/y) following an unrevised 0.5% December gain. Earlier figures were revised slightly higher. A 0.4% increase had been expected [...]
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.6% during January (2.5% y/y) following an unrevised 0.5% December gain. Earlier figures were revised slightly higher. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
A steeper interest rate yield curve continued to have the largest positive effect on the leading index, followed by more building permits, fewer initial claims for unemployment insurance, a higher ISM new orders index, improved consumer expectations for business/economic conditions and the leading credit index. Other component series had little effect on the total.
The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators ticked 0.1% higher (1.6% y/) after a 0.3% rise in December. A rise in payroll employment, real personal income less transfers and manufacturing & trade sales contributed positively to the index, while industrial production contributed negatively.
The Index of Lagging Economic Indicators rose 0.3% (3.3% y/y) after a 0.5% gain. The average duration of unemployment, the prime rate charged by banks and the ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income contributed positively to the index. The number of commercial & industrial loans outstanding contributed negatively.
The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators also is a leading indicator of economic activity. It measures excesses in the economy relative to its ongoing performance. This ratio declined m/m to a record low.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The expectations are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
| Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 4.4 | 5.6 |
| Coincident | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Lagging | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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